Cher just put an interesting article with recent new spec homes sales in Greenwich. I couldn’t help myself not to look in to its economics, i.e. estimate expenses associated with those projects and see how well (or bad) the builders did:
| Project | Teardown purchased | date | New Construction sold | date | Months in-between |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Boulder Brook | $2,150,000 | 8/1/2006 | $5,832,000 | 11/1/2007 | 15 |
| 64 Old Church | $1,699,000 | 6/1/2006 | $3,750,000 | 2/1/2008 | 20 |
| 980 North | $1,125,000 | 9/1/2004 | $3,375,000 | 11/1/2007 | 39 |
| 7 Butternut Hollow | $1,862,500 | 7/1/2004 | $4,300,000 | 11/1/2007 | 41 |
| 19 Parsonage | $1,995,000 | 1/1/2005 | $4,475,000 | 11/1/2007 | 34 |
| 79 Dingletown | $1,790,000 | 10/1/2006 | $6,787,500 | 11/1/2007 | 13 |
My assumptions of costs associated with these projects were; 7.5% interest rate for financing, 5.0% for real estate commissions, and $280 - $350 per square foot for construction costs (I made $/sf estimates based on the MLS description and the photos of each project):
| Project | New Home (S.F.) | Est. Construction Cost | Est. Interest Paid | Est. Real Estate Commission | Project Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Boulder Brook | 8,339 | $2,501,700 | $319,354 | $291,600 | $569,346 |
| 64 Old Church | 5,000 | $1,500,000 | $308,967 | $187,500 | $54,533 |
| 980 North | 10,200 | $2,856,000 | $606,425 | $168,750 | $(1,381,175) |
| 7 Butternut Hollow | 8,743 | $2,622,900 | $794,357 | $215,000 | $(998,016) |
| 19 Parsonage | 8,161 | $2,448,300 | $547,167 | $223,750 | $(739,217) |
| 79 Dingletown | 9,050 | $3,167,500 | $219,617 | $339,375 | $1,271,008 |
Well, spec. building nowadays is no longer a “no-brainer”. In order to make money the builder has to:
- buy land at the right price, i.e. not to overpay for it factoring appreciation
- know who your buyer is; put the amenities that meet buyer expectations without going overboard
- make sure that every dollar spent on construction creates value
- price the new home to sell since the accruing interest can quickly erode profits as the house sits on the market
Yes, you still can make a $1.00MM on a project, but consider yourself lucky if you broke even in the current market.Â
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